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Articles related to "rain"


Conditional Probabilities, Seattle Rain, And Tricky Friends

  • The first time I saw this problem, I thought “only if all 3 of my friends lied to me then it would mean it’s not raining in Seattle”.
  • In a state of the world where it is raining, our friends can’t have answered “yes” and lied (to lie, they would have had to have replied “no”).
  • That’s not possible either — all of them said “yes” and to lie in the state of the world where it’s raining requires a “no”.
  • Because in the sunny state of the world, our friends would have had to respond “no, it’s not raining” in order to be telling the truth.
  • No, actually we’re estimating the probability of rain given that our friends all said “yes, it’s raining”.
  • Let’s think back to our problem — we want to know the probability that it is raining when all 3 of our friends say “yes, it’s raining”.

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Conditional Probabilities, Seattle Rain, And Tricky Friends

  • The first time I saw this problem, I thought “only if all 3 of my friends lied to me then it would mean it’s not raining in Seattle”.
  • In a state of the world where it is raining, our friends can’t have answered “yes” and lied (to lie, they would have had to have replied “no”).
  • That’s not possible either — all of them said “yes” and to lie in the state of the world where it’s raining requires a “no”.
  • Because in the sunny state of the world, our friends would have had to respond “no, it’s not raining” in order to be telling the truth.
  • No, actually we’re estimating the probability of rain given that our friends all said “yes, it’s raining”.
  • Let’s think back to our problem — we want to know the probability that it is raining when all 3 of our friends say “yes, it’s raining”.

save | comments | report | share on