So a second wave of government supports must extend the emergency lifeline for the economy beyond September.
The list is long: JobKeeper ends, the doubling of unemployment benefits through JobSeeker stops, the pause in payments on half a million mortgages runs out, the rental eviction ban is lifted, government loan guarantees for small businesses pull back, and the clock runs out on extra wage subsidies for apprentices.
Or, to put that another way, if you want to know what will happen with JobKeeper, keep watching the virus numbers in Melbourne.
But the recession is changing shape fast, so the nature, timing and dollars of government support needs to change fast too.
So whatever happens, we shouldn’t be scared of spending more money if that’s needed to get unemployment back down.
The mistake the world made after the GFC was pulling back government support too soon.